Trump’s Redemption Moment and the Iran Deal

Donald Trump had to withdraw from Iran Nuclear Deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA). There was no other way for him because he is intensely in trouble. Trump may not talk, or tweet, like he is, or/and he may try to look confident. Nonetheless, the truth is America’s 45th president has messed up really big, and he doesn’t know how to fix it. Back in 2016, while campaigning for the election, he thought he would get into the campaign collect some money lose the election and live happily ever after with the easy money he made. Trump is not and has never been the man of tough and big decisions. His whole life has always been like his show, The Apprentice. He was never involved in planning or managing; he had people to do it for him. The only thing he learned in his life was hiring and firing. He would hire people to do all the hardship, and he would dismiss them as soon as he needed the credit for what he did not do. Apparently, this is not what the president of the United States is expected to be good at. This sounds more like a job for Queen Elizabeth and the Royals in the Buckingham Palace. Despite Trump trying very hard to live like the Royals, such life style contradicts his presence at the White House because living like a king is far from what the U.S. Constitution stands for. The White House means trouble. It involves hard work, constant communication, being a middleman most of the time and making some instant sensitive decisions. None of these are Trump’s qualities. Trump is not good at last minute decision making, especially now that his brain is failing him.

From left, Head of Mission of People’s Republic of China to the European Union Hailong Wu, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, an unidentified Russian official, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry pose for a photo following negotiations between the P5+1 member nations and Iranian officials about the future of their country’s nuclear program at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland on April 2, 2015./ Photo by U.S. Department of State

All these facts become more relevant when he, as the president of the United States of America, has made a last-minute decision regarding one of the most important topics not only for the U.S. but for the entire world. It took almost nine years for the team of six countries plus the United Nations to sign a deal that all parties involved found satisfactory. During the years of negotiation, some delegates were replaced by their peers, however, the path and the policies of the conversation never became subject to massive scrutiny until Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the president of Iran. Ahmadinejad, a populist like Trump, needed something big, something necessary to get rid of all the controversies surrounding his suspicious election victory. In fact, his cabinet could not be more similar to the Trump’s. He even picked Saeed Mortazavi (the butcher of the press) as the head of the Iranian Social Security Organization. He was accused of the unauthorized method, torture and killing of prisoners who protested the election result. Ahmadinejad used the “screwing the negotiation” technique, to finish the process of completing Iran’s nuclear program. He needed at least one victory to convince people that he was a good choice, despite cheating the election.

Looking at Trump’s second year in the office, it seems he is taking the same road as Ahmadinejad. Trump has lost a lot since the election ended. He has gone from a nagging celebrity into an unhinged fame-seeker. Trump has lost many battles against Democrats, which has put the Republicans and the entire party in jeopardy. He did not replace Obamacare, he did not get the budget for the wall, and he was defeated three times in court over his Muslim Ban. As a result, he has lost many allies including Republican members of the Congress. It is not surprising that some Republicans like Paul Ryan have declared their resignation before the upcoming election, with some others publicly criticizing him.

On the other hand, Trump’s issues with the law have gone from bad to worse. Although Barack Obama has left the Oval Office, he did not forget to leave a troubling souvenir for his successor. The FBI started investigating Russians meddling in the U.S. election on Obama’s order. Even firing James Comey did not stop the investigation, but rather encouraged the investigation team, including Robert Mueller, to dig deeper, which resulted arresting Trump’s personal attorney, and his campaign manager and several White House aides. Seams Trump has been tapped in the Oval Office with the shadow of Obama following him regularly. Yet, it seems Trump is unable to erase the shadow.

Even his lawyers one by one either resigned, arrested or got fired. Trump has become isolated to the point that he hired Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani is not a ticket out of jail for anybody, not even a completely innocent client. While 9/11 was heartbreaking for many people around the globe, it was a lucky incident for Giuliani. He had not accomplished anything valuable, and suddenly he is the mayor of a city in the middle of a massive terrorist attack. Although he did make some questionable choices managing the aftermath of the terrorist attack, the incident was big enough to make him a celebrity, which he continually has tried to take advantage of it.

So, after all the political isolations, and troubles Trump needed something to keep his supporters happy. He can lose everything even his wife, but not his fans, because his followers are the only links to his kinghood illusion. That’s the reason Trump waited until the last minute to announce his withdrawal from the Iran Deal. Trump hoped that maybe he could push the Republicans and Democrats to approve the $4.4 billion for his wall. In another words, Iran Deal is the result of Congress rejecting Trump’s wall.

Still, his fans’ support is going to cost him too much. Trump’s sanctions will start six months from now. It means Iranians will try to find a replacement for all the trade deals they made with the U.S. including the $16.6 billion deal with Boeing. Canada is already in the line and Europeans made it clear they will not support any U.S. sanctions against Iran. Why should they? Now, Germany has become the third largest trade partner for the Iranian market and France has invested billions of dollars in Iran’s industries. The European sanctions against Russia is another story. Trump did not back them on the sanctions against Russia. The action by the White House created an environment of mistrust amongst Europeans. On the other hand, Putin has already threatened Europe by cutting their gas supplies. If that happens, Europe needs a reliable source and which country better than Iran. Iran is the second largest source of natural gas after Russia. Iran has already offered its gas to Europe and has signed a $5 billion trade deal with France’s Total. All these, plus the fact that Iran is the second largest market in the Middle East, makes Europe anxious about signing off on this great opportunity to China and Russia. Besides, America passing up the competition brings more opportunities to Europe, and it would be incredibly insane if any of the European countries lose such chance.

Trump’s sanctions perhaps will bring some difficulties to the table for Europe and Iran. Forgetting the value of the U.S. market for Europeans is impossible. However, all the new regulations by the Trump administration have created a considerable burden in the way of the free trade between European Union and the U.S. If by any chance Trump wants to put some pressure on Iran, he can only do it by opening the U.S. market for Europe and cancel all the new regulations. Trump cannot have it both ways. He needs allies and allies need guarantees. Something that Trump neither is capable nor is willing to give to anyone.

Researcher, #Technology #Security, #Safety, #Privacy, #SocialJustice, #MinoritiesRights, #BlackLivesMatter, #WomesRights, #GunControl

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